Iranian Journal of Medical Education

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Introduction: Determination of psychometric properties including predictive validity, especially in university entrance examination (especially for subjects that are long, expensive and important for public health) is one of the major studies that should be done and considered frequently by the Assessment Organization. This study aimed to determine predictive validity of university entrance exam in predicting the educational success of medical students. Methods: One hundred fifty seven (157) medical students admitted in 1383 in Isfahan University of medical science were reviewed. Scores of specific courses (biology, physics, mathematics and chemistry) and a general course (English) in the university entrance examination as the predictor variables and exam scores in the Comprehensive Test of Basic Medical Sciences as the criterion variable was considered. Data analysis was done using Pearson correlation and multiple regression analysis. Results: All test materials had significant correlations with criterion variables (in simple correlation between predictive and criterion variables). Modeling using multiple regressions shows that only biology course was significant productivity. Conclusion: Among predictor variables, the biological and mathematical scores had higher Predictive validity than other variables.

Keywords: Predictive validity, university entrance examination, the Comprehensive Test of Basic Medical Sciences

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